Someone emailed me a link to an article by property economist Gareth Kiernan of Infometrics in which he sets out to debunk (pull the legs off) arguments proffered by some self-proclaimed ‘property experts’ like spruiker Dean Letfus in defence of the tax treatment of property investment.
…So I don’t buy into the whole “social service” argument.
I’ve also been exasperated by arguments put forward by other “experts” such as Dean Letfus saying that “people will literally have nowhere to live” and “the end result is a … chronic housing shortage and massive rental increases.”
In response to these assertions, consider the following argument…
I’ve got a lot of time for Gareth. He’s directly helped me with data for several of my or my authors’ books including Olly Newland’s The Day the Bubble Bursts and aided my meagre understanding of the power of trends in property markets.
I talk with Gareth every few months and always enjoy hearing his views. He brings a rigorous, careful analysis of the figures and (as economists do) explains things in terms of hindsight — what’s been happening. That’s not a criticism. I like him and respect him.
So his (fairly light, I thought) pre-Budget opinion piece at interest.co.nz is worth reading, whether you agree with everything he says or not. What also interested me (and the person alerting me to it) was some of the reader comments responding to the article which reveal a level of (dis)respect for Dean Letfus.
He’s clearly made an impression on some other folks… someone even quoted posts from this blog! Meanwhile, Gareth himself is obviously not too impressed with Dean Letfus either … although I don’t recall ever discussing the subject with him.
I remember Dean Letfus (sometimes spelt Dean Leftus) described generally well-respected BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander as ‘a crazed sadistic basher of other commentators’ and suggested he suffered from rabies(!) Hardly a rational suggestion.
He also described Olly Newland’s advice as ‘drivel’ before later grudgingly admitting that gee, maybe experienced ‘old school’ type investors like Olly had actually learned some worthwhile things through ‘the crucible of experience’ that Mr Instant Expert hadn’t realized. So it seems fair enough to me that the slick and self-aggrandising “expert” should cop a wee bit of criticism himself.
Here’s a sampling of the comments, courtesy of interest.co.nz (including Andrew King’s view – “The first thing [Gareth] got completely wrong was believing Dean Letfus was an expert in property.” Zing!): Continue reading →